Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents after Oil Shocks
This paper explores the effect of oil shocks on electoral outcomes. Using a new polling and election data set for 207 elections across 50 democracies, the paper shows that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents. The analysis verifies that these shocks - which...
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| Other Authors: | , |
| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | English |
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Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2020
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| Series: | World Bank E-Library Archive
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| Online Access: | |
| Collection: | World Bank E-Library Archive - Collection details see MPG.ReNa |
| Summary: | This paper explores the effect of oil shocks on electoral outcomes. Using a new polling and election data set for 207 elections across 50 democracies, the paper shows that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents. The analysis verifies that these shocks - which reduce consumption growth - are associated with worsening performance for incumbents in the runup to reelection and a reversal in the leaning of the political party in power post-election |
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| Physical Description: | 22 pages |