| Summary: | This paper presents the first application of a macro-micro model introduced in Technical Paper No. 1 "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution. A Macro-micro Simulation Model". Here, the model is applied to Morocco from 1980 to 1986. A stabilization programme was undertaken by Morocco in 1983. We first looked at the immediate effects of each macroeconomic measure implemented by the state on main macroeconomic variables and on unemployment, income inequality, percentage of poor and the poverty gap. Other simulations show the effects on the same variables of exogenous shocks, like droughts or price increases of imports, over one year. Dynamic simulations (on 3- to 5-year periods) were the second step of this analysis, in order to estimate the effects of a package of stabilization measures. We thus simulated three scenarios: a pre-emptive adjustment; a different policy in 1983 and the absence of adjustment in 1983-85. The first lesson we can draw from these simulations is that ..
|
|---|